The potential of open source software, open source principles and collective innovation is significant. They could change the world. They should, at the very least, change information intensive industries. These assertions are largely an intellectual argument. The thoughts of an individual. The compelling value of open source and collective innovation as a solution needs to be demonstrated.
Read MoreArchive for ‘Web 1.0 Intellectual property vs. Web 3.0 Community knowledge’
The potential of collective innovation and open source to reshape our world needs to be demonstrated
Companies in developed countries will need access to the 33 million university educated professionals working in the developing world. Immigration can only solve a proportion of the problem. Online networks will be an essential tool to find and coordinate delivery of talent from the developing countries to global projects. This international talent pool will deliver services to every industry on every continent. Organisations will need to know how to participate in, or build, an online network to access this resource.
Read MoreThe problem with the world today is that there is not an convenient and effective means to aggregate and distribute the unique contribution of each individual. This is particularly true where problems may rest with government and large corporations which are perceived to have unlimited resources for “public relations”. Without an effective and convenient means to contribute, each individual quite rightly assesses any contribution to be futile. It is highly unlikely their activity will result in the desired outcome.
The internet offers a new means to overcome the futility of contribution. The rise of online industry, social and political networks will provide all individuals with the opportunity to make a contribution. We will be surprised at the phenomenon that will reshape the world over the next twenty years. As the real underlying problems of the world are publicised, collective communities will assemble to solve them.
Read MoreMy previous article, Could an online social network deliver a virtual Silicon Valley to non-US economies? , I concluded that online social or industry networks could deliver the people and chain reaction that could spawn a new Silicon Valley. Financial centres currently specialises in specific niches. The rise of online industry networks and the rise of global capital markets will result in the rise of specialist financial centres. to an unprecedented scale. These centres will offer a specific regulatory environment tailored to specific companies in specific industries.
The repatriation of capital from the US over the next five years is a once in a 200 year event. Financial centres will need to determine their strategy and execute unequivocally if they are to secure a niche.
Read MoreThe patent system emerged to motivate business to organise people to develop new technology. Without providing an exclusive opportunity for profit, business would not assemble the structure and people necessary to create new technology. Technology means ways of doing things. This includes information technology, biotechnology and healthcare. If the global objective is the creation of new technology, then there is another way to organise.
Read MoreThe US consumer has driven much of the world economy for decades. It has been the perceived centre of the world for many industries. This is shifting. The primary source of global growth is likely to be Asia and Europe. This is a demographic reality as hundreds of millions of people in Asia enter the middle class. We only need to survive the shift from US centric to global.
Global capital will need to be looking for investment opportunities in Asia and Europe. Some markets are too small or have insufficient experience to deliver efficiency. The internet is likely to play a greater role in making the global capital market more efficient. Online industry networks will have an essential role to play in improving the allocation and efficiency of the capital allocation process.
Read MoreThere have been concerns that Moore’s law may not continue. Recent innovations have solved problems in manufacturing, power consumption and heat generation. It appears that a further innovation may not only see that Moore’s law continues but introduce a revolution in computing. In simple terms, it is the ability to put 80 cores on a single chip.
Read MoreIndustrial use of the internet is at an early stage. Existing corporates have used the internet to reduce costs by distributing information in a lower cost means. However, there are few examples of industries that have been completely transformed. The primary purpose of some major industries is distribution of information between market participants. They have significant economic rents for taking information from one market participant, mildly transforming it and delivering it to another market participant. The internet offers free (almost) distribution and the ability to find other market participants. These significant economic rents for distribution seem redundant in an age of the internet.
The next wave of internet companies are likely to target the distribution of information with a commercial value. These are Online Industry Networks. These networks will simply break down existing labour intensive interactions and coordinate them in the internet. They will rely significantly on user generated content and each user assuming responsibility for the distribution of that information. The current intermediaries are unwilling to sacrifice the high economic rents for distribution by adopting new business models. Only new entrants will apply new business models to take advantage of the internet to deliver products and services at significantly less cost, in less time and without needing to visit a specific retail location. These businesses will facilitate the exchange of information from people to business. Freelancers from all around the world will manufacture the information and deliver it directly to the end user. An online industry network promote products and services of the community. Service providers can find customers and customers can search for service providers. The consumers of the information may have access to products and services previously denied by closed distribution channels.
Read MoreDemographic shifts are the primary force that drive fundamental change. One billion consumers of US standards are to emerge. The United States will be an important market, but not the primary consumer or financial market in the world. Fiscal mismanagement by the United States will exacerbate the decline of the United States, but it is demography that will result in a more global market. The world will be “better” if the world can evolve from unsustainable debt funded consumption for the benefit of one country to global markets which share the benefits of economic development.
Read MoreIf Moore’s law continues, then the cost of hardware will continue to decline and the ability to run a bank from a desert island a reality. The ability of software to take advantage of these hardware advantages may be limited. The advances in hardware and emergence of Utility computing will overcome much of the limitation. The result will be unpredented opportunity for entrepreneurs to create applications to global audiences in an increasingly service oriented world. Linux is likely to be best placed to take advantage of advances in hardware.
Read MoreSkype made internet telephony popular. It added video functionality to Skype last year. It has now added remote desktop or application sharing. As the worlds most popular internet telephone software, this will have a significant impact on the number of people that work together over the internet. Could Skype make application sharing popular just like it did for internet telephony?
Read MoreThe electronic distribution of shareholder information will reduce costs and provide immediate delivery of information to shareholders. Electronic delivery may bypass established channels for information delivery and may accelerate disintermediation. However, the change is likely to be a universally positive for market efficiency with more direct communication between a company, its shareholders and advisers. It may also be possible that reduced transaction costs could lead to improved access to capital markets by smaller companies.
Read MoreThere have been a few acquisitions of internet or technology companies at conventionally unjustifiable valuations. These have been the prominant aspect of a narrow technology boom (see .Net boom category). The price of oil and speculation in the oil market has, however, acted as a dampener on the extent of the technology boom. Higher oil prices have raised global growth concerns generally and speculative capital has been focussed on oil and resources. Speculation in oil has rewarded investors until recently. The recent “crash” in crude oil prices may reduce concerns about growth and speculative capital may look beyond oil investments. The technology boom is likely to gain further momentum as a result. I have extracted a few quotes to provide an insight the recent price decline and the delicate geostrategic and political balances in the market for oil. I encourage you to read the original article.
Read MoreThe “battle for search” users is likely to move very quicky to a battle of online social networks in key market verticals. These verticals will be based around information with intrinsic value in existing industries.
Read More“A true sea change is taking place in the capital markets industry worldwide. Driven by sociological, regulatory and technological developments, this wave will completely alter the face of the industry and the roles of current market participants over the next 10 years.”: Bearingpoint. Stock exchanges will move beyond order execution, to providing investment banking services and enhanced clearing and settlement. Smaller firms will follow Google’s IPO example and approach the public directly rather than through intermediaries.
Read More“Power will shift from the traders who have benefited from merely facilitating transactions to the buyers and sellers who take positions on either end of the trade, and that which is most highly prized in financial markets – the ability to create value – is likely to experience a renaissance as transformational as anything the industry has ever witnessed.” – IBM report. The opportunity for online social networks in financial markets is becoming clear.
Read MoreExisting industries have billions of dollars of historical investment, hundreds of years of history and employ of tens of thousands of people. These industries are being challenged by more innovative players that apply new business models to reduce costs. Challenges to the introduction of the railroad included “Rail travel at high speed is not possible, because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia.” This article offers a brief insight into the emerging responses of industry and their efforts to lobby government. Will government “asphyxiate” the people on the information superhighway? Will we be forced to travel by canal? Will we be forced to use the telephone?
Read MoreMoore’s Law is forecast to continue. If the rate of improvement continues, technology will be 128 times more powerful in ten years, and over 4,000 times more powerful in 15 years. Will it be possible for a single laptop capture, store, process and transmit information for entire industries? Could a single laptop replace the global music industry, a stock exchange or provide voice calls for the world? There are billions of dollars of historical investment, hundreds of years of history and tens of thousands of people being challenged by new companies. Starbucks may have enough bandwidth to run a bank, but you probably would not want to live there 24 hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year.
Read MoreThe Open Source model of building software harnesses the collective knowledge of a group of volunteers to build complex software. Over the next few years, collective knowledge networks like the open source movement will move beyond developing open source software, to manufacturing and distributing products products and services in other industries.
Read MoreOffshore financial centres had a reputation for being havens of criminal activity. The following five year old articles show this reputation is undeserved.They suggest that the “persecution of tax havens is not the fight against money laundering but the fight against low taxes”. The persecution of “tax havens” was simply an instrument of the nation state to protect domestic tax revenues from foreign tax competition.
Today, the majority of financial centres are well regulated and well respected. The also offer companies and investors the opportunity to reduce compliance costs and take advantage of countries dedicated to servicing their needs. Some countries are focussed on attracting a specific type of company. They enact legislation that is necessary to provide a respectable base for specific types of business. For example, the Isle of Man is focussed upon attracting EBusiness. These smaller financial centres are likely to be significant beneficiaries of the globalisation of financial markets. Business owners and entrepreneurs may choose to incorporate in these centres and derive significant benefits. They will need to pay taxes on any foreign income they derive or is attributed to them by their tax laws. The majority of financial centres are havens for business, rather than a means to reduce taxes.
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Marcus Cake
Peter Elliott
Matt Taylor
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